Chatel Snow Forecast

Chatel Snow Forecast: Information About The Forecast..

 

About The ChatelWeb Snow Forecast:

This continues to be an experimental, snow forecast for Chatel that began for the 2014/15 winter season using a blended model approach.

The forecast is expected to be online daily before 8am during the winter season, but issued later in the morning during November.
Each morning precipitation forecast data from several different global and regional models are used to calculate a forecast range of snowfall, a range showing the spread of possibilites shown by the models we use and also a headline single figure for the altitudes of 1200m and 1800m for the following 24 hours. This is then repeated to create a forecast for the 24hr to 48hr period (using less data than the 0 to 24hr period).

The raw data is tweaked for each forecast, using a simple statistical procedure and also using a percentage of human input.


For the 2016 /17 snow season, we have tweaked the meanings of the numerical tables, which are as follows:

- "ChatelWeb.com Forecast Amount" = our estimation of the snowfall in that 24 hour period. eg 12cm.

- "Forecast Range" = the range of snowfall which is being shown by the models that we use, so this figure may sometimes show quite a large spread, however, you can gauge where we think the snowfall is going by using the Forecast Amount figure.

 

What If The Forecast Is Not Updated:
If the forecast is not updated on a particular day, then it means that our internet access is unavailable, so please bear with us and an update will be posted as soon as we are back online.


Problems With Forecasting Snowfall:

Snowfall is a notoriously difficult thing to forecast. It is a commonly held view that it is only possible to realistically start to consider potential amounts of snow from a forthcoming snowfall when it is within the 72hr forecasting range and any accuracy is often only possible once the snow event comes within the 24 to 36 hour period. Even within the 6 to 12 hour period, forecasts can change at very short notice and can go very wrong!. With this in mind, the ChatelWeb forecast will be issued once a day, covering the 24 hour period from 7am on the day of the forecast to 7am the following day. This means that we will not be able to respond to changes in the various computer model runs during the day or to the evolution of a particular snowfall, however, comments may be added to a forecast during each afternoon or evening to suggest how the forecast is going and whether the numbers need to be regarded as too high or too low.

As the forecast is experimental - please treat it with caution and continue to use your normal sources of snow forecast.

 

Problems With Measuring Snowfall:

There are several factors that can cause problems with measuring how much snow has been deposited by a particular snowfall and these include changes in temperature and wet-bulb temperature during the snowfall, changes in humidity, wind, snowfall intensity, the type and temperature of surface that the snow is falling on etc etc. To overcome some of the issues, we hope to measure the depth of fresh snow several times during a particular snowfall at 1200m, rather than once daily - however, the depth measurement at 1800m may only be once a day. It is also worth noting that snow depths from a snowfall can vary drastically over a relatively short distance from one place to another at the same altitude, so what we measure in Chatel, might be very different a few short km's away at the same altitude.

 

Disclaimer:
The information contained in these forecasts is experimental and should be treated with caution. We recommend that you use a professional snow forecast eg provided by Meteo France.

For avalanche forecasts, use both the Meteo France forecast - click here and the Swiss SLF forecast - click here - as these are both very relevant to this area.
We accept no liability for what individuals, groups, or organisations may do with the information and services provided by these forecasts.
Please do not copy or reproduce the forecasts you see on ChatelWeb.com without our permission.

 

Recommended Forecasts: ChatelWeb.com recommends the following websites for snow forecasting:

Weather To Ski:
Weathertoski.co.uk is the brainchild of Fraser Wilkin, freelance journalist and snow reporter, and is the result of a lifetime's research into Alpine weather and snow conditions. From our point of view at ChatelWeb - Fraser knows his stuff!

The aim of his site is simple – to provide clear, unbiased, regularly updated snow and weather information for skiers and snowboarders.  Unlike many other sources of snow information, all content is personally researched and written.  No automated feeds, no symbols, no gimmicks. www.weathertoski.co.uk

 

Meteo France Snow & Avalanche Bulletin:
An essential daily read for any snow lover with the latest information on snowpack and avalanche risk from the professionals.

Chatel is in the Chablais area. Click here for the bulletin.

It also woth noting that Meteo France produce a daily "fax" weather forecast bulletin which is a subscription only service, but is sometimes displayed on the mountain (eg at the top Super-Chatel telecabine station). This is possibly the best forecast, however unfortunately it is not available for free online.

 

SLF Swiss Avalanche Bulletin:
An excellent source of avalanche and snow information.

www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/index_FR

 

Chamonix-Meteo.com:

This is a privately run (not run by Meteo France) and highly regarded weather forecast for the Chamonix Valley and is a very useful guide to snowfall in the Chatel area.

http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/